Matthew Green 估计：1% 概率身处 Minicrypt，15% 概率对现有公钥加密失去信心
Quoting Matthew Green
Matthew Green 认为，我们有 1% 的概率生活在 Minicrypt，并有 15% 的概率在实质上对现有公钥加密算法失去信心。他在 Twitter 上表示，大家都非常在意显得体面，所以他来当那个提出最坏可能性的怪人。
9th October 2026
Everyone is very concerned about being respectable, so I’m going to be the goofball who raises worst-case possibilities. I think there is a 1% chance we live in Minicrypt, and a 15% chance we functionally lose confidence in our existing public-key encryption algorithms. [...]
The problem here is that the speed of AI producing surprises, and the speed of human beings replacing standards (even with the very best AI assistance) are just orders of magnitude different. You only recover from a surprise like this if you do the preparation in advance.
— Matthew Green, on Twitter. I looked it up and Minicrypt is Russell Impagliazzo’s hypothetical world in which public-key encryption is impossible.
来源：Simon Willison · simonwillison.net