CESifo工作论文称近期大学毕业生招聘未见显著下降
AI was supposed to hit new grads hard. So far, unemployment data says otherwise.
慕尼黑CESifo工作论文称，没有证据表明近期大学毕业生招聘在绝对或相对水平上出现显著、广泛的替代或减少。作者Robert Fairlie与Jane Wu聚焦应届生，认为劳动力需求变化可能先表现为少招人；当AI足以完成许多入门办公室工作中相对标准化的任务时，企业可能减少简单岗位的新招聘，而非解雇更有经验的长期员工。
Last month, we shared word of a Stanford University study that found entry-level employment in so-called "AI-impacted" occupations lagging well behind that in other fields. Now, a new working paper from economics researchers at Munich's CESifo finds the opposite, arguing point blank that "there is no evidence of any significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring of recent college graduates in absolute or relative levels."
In "The Early Impacts of AI on Employment Among Recent College Graduates," researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu said they decided to focus on recent graduates "because changes in labor demand may first appear through reductions in hiring." As AI gets good enough to at least perform the "relatively standardized tasks" in many entry-level office jobs, they argue, firms could reduce new hiring for simpler roles rather than laying off more experienced long-term employees.
There's some reason to believe 2026's graduating job seekers might be more at risk of AI displacement than those graduating just a year or two prior. The CESifo researchers point to a recent sharp increase in the number of firms "replacing a large number of employee tasks with AI" in a Census survey, as well as broad increases in AI spending per employee and ChatGPT Enterprise token use in the last 12 months.
来源：Ars Technica · AI · arstechnica.com